APROPOS Workshop Report

The Future of Physical Oceanography



Report of the APROPOS Workshop


Monterey, California


December 15-17, 1997


Sponsored by the

National Science Foundation


Division of Ocean Sciences


DRAFT #5, 15 October 1998

Table of Contents


I. Introduction

II. The past twenty years of physical oceanography

III. Future directions

IV. Intradiscipline interactions

V. Interfaces with other disciplines

VI. Interfaces with society

VII. The NSF's physical oceanography Core program

VIII. The infrastructure of physical oceanography

IX. Conclusions

Appendix APROPOS participants

** Thematic Presentations and Responses ** New! (14 Dec. 98)


Summary
The National Science Foundation (NSF) tasked the U.S. physical oceanographic community in 1997 to evaluate the current status of research in physical oceanography and to identify future opportunities and infrastructure needs. A workshop was held in Monterey, California from December 15 to 17, 1997 and was attended by 46 scientists representing the community of NSF supported investigators. A subtheme of the meeting was the role and effectiveness of the NSF's core program in Physical Oceanography. Input via electronic mail from the wider scientific community was sought both before and after the meeting.

The community was asked to consider advances in physical oceanography over the last twenty years. The following items were widely hailed as significant recent achievements: a revolutionary understanding of the coupling of the tropical ocean and atmosphere, and the development of predictive El Niño models; estimation of the global distribution of mesoscale variability in the world ocean and theories and models of this geostrophic turbulence; completion of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment and improved estimates of the pathways and timescales of the circulation; quantitative measurements of the strength of small-scale ocean mixing and the dependence of this mixing on the strength of the internal wave field and other environmental conditions.

The community was also asked to look into the future and forecast advances for the next twenty years. Great excitement was expressed at the prospect of new tools which might solve the problem of observing the global ocean. Already the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite mission has measured the topography of the sea surface to 3 cm accuracy at 7 km spacing for 5 years. Future developments in satellite oceanography promise global measurements of sea surface salinity and precipitation. These measurements are crucial if we are to understand the climate system and the hydrologic cycle. Yet sea-truth is essential and in situ water-column observations made by an unprecedented class of autonomous instruments are anticipated. Integrating measurements, such as tomography, and the installation of cheap and easy-to-use probes on ships-of-opportunity, hold great promise.

Even with present technology, a description and an understanding of the spatial distribution of turbulent processes in the global ocean is achievable in the next decade. Our present conception of ocean dynamics is largely ignorant of processes with relatively short horizontal length scales (say 100m to 50 km). Yet biological variability is concentrated on these short scales. It is the dynamics on these same scales that is parameterized by eddy resolving circulation models. Further, in the coastal zones, cross-shelf exchanges are likely mediated by instabilities and topographic influences whose horizontal scales are much less than those of the well-studied alongshore flows. Exploring these largely unvisited scales is a new frontier for physical oceanography.

Several problems facing physical oceanography were identified at the meeting. These are: (i) large sea-going groups are retrenching and there is a consequent loss of technicians, engineers and the hardware that these people maintain; (ii) sustaining the funding of long time series observations is difficult; (iii) physical oceanography is not visible to undergraduate mathematics, physics and engineering majors, and so does not attract many graduate applicants from that population; (iv) the organization of the NSF's Ocean Sciences program makes it difficult to fund projects of intermediate size, and this difficulty is compounded if the project is interdisciplinary.

Despite these problems, there was consensus that the National Science Foundation's Core program is an invaluable asset of the field. The peer review system maintains a balance between scientific rigor and responsiveness and ensures continuing support for innovative and fundamental science.


I. Introduction

Physical oceanography is concerned with how water moves and mixes in the ocean, and how water carries and distributes dissolved chemicals, nutrients, plankton, sediment, and pollutants. Physical oceanography is a branch of applied physics whose goal is to understand, model and predict ocean processes using mathematics and fluid mechanics. The discipline is increasingly intertwined with atmospheric and climate studies: understanding the energy and momentum transfer through the seas and across their boundaries is a major goal of all these fields. Physical oceanography includes the study of estuaries and lakes and also encompasses the study of large bodies of water on other planets and moons (for example, Europa).

A central challenge of physical oceanography is the range of space and time scales which must be encompassed by any successful effort to understand the fluid. Watching the wind blow leaves across a lawn, it is difficult to imagine that this forcing can be responsible for driving the vast surface circulation of the Pacific Ocean, yet this is the case. Capillary ripples roughen the sea surface so that the wind can grip the water and this immense friction results in waves that grind into distant beaches and reshape the shoreline. The wind also deposits momentum into the deeper ocean. This drives gyres within which water spirals for decades. Over centuries and millennia the entire stratification of the ocean changes in response to cooling in high latitudes and evaporation in the subtropics. On these planetary scales, the ocean serves as a reservoir for heat, fresh water and anthropogenic products.

Observing these processes demands a combination of in situ and remote measurements, including acoustic, electromagnetic and satellite-based techniques. Recent advances, such as autonomous sampling, acoustic tomography and tracer releases are producing an increasingly global and complete picture of the three-dimensional ocean circulation. Because of new technologies, oceanic processes that are seen dimly, or not at all, will be uncovered. Understanding these new data with fluid mechanics, applied mathematics, powerful computers and modern descriptive tools is the future of physical oceanography.


The context and organization of the APROPOS meeting
The physical oceanography program at the NSF spends $29 million annually on funding a broad range of proposals in all subfields of physical oceanography. This nontargeted support ensures the health of physical oceanography. Both in practical and intellectual terms, this investment has produced splendid returns. To ensure the continuing vitality of this program, the NSF must look to the future and recognize exciting opportunities for progress in fundamental physical oceanography. With this goal in mind, the APROPOS1 Workshop was tasked by the NSF with evaluating the current status of research in physical oceanography and identifying future opportunities and infrastructure needs. An important subtheme of the meeting was the role and effectiveness of the NSF's Core program in physical oceanography in advancing the subject. The meeting was organized by a steering committee consisting of nine physical oceanographers and was attended by 46 scientists chosen to represent the community of NSF-supported investigators. A list of participants is included as an Appendix.


1 Advances and Primary Research Opportunities in Physical Oceanography Studies

The proposal process ensures that the NSF is advised by many scientists offering individual visions of what is exciting and feasible in the next two to five years. Why, then, is it necessary to have a workshop devoted to discussing the future of physical oceanography? APROPOS participants were urged to consider physical oceanography on a time scale much longer than that of a proposal cycle and to look for structural problems in the national support of physical oceanography. As a practical matter, the participants were divided into four discussion groups which maintained their membership throughout the three-day retreat.

To stimulate the discussion, the steering committee posed ten questions six months in advance of the meeting. Using the Internet, the steering committee solicited input from the < AHREF="http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/project/oce_workshop/apropos/input/">US Physical Oceanographic community. (The electronic mailing was sent to roughly 550 US scientists working in physical oceanography and related fields.) The ten questions posed by the steering committee are:

1. What is physical oceanography?

2. What are the most significant accomplishments in physical oceanography over the past two decades?

3. What are the current and emerging scientific questions in physical oceanography that we might expect to answer in 10 or 20 years?

4. What are the unique and successful aspects of NSF core research?

5. Are the interactions among the elements of PO (analytical, experimental, numerical and observational) adequate?

6. Will interactions with atmospheric sciences, biology, chemistry and geology be a driving force on core PO? If so how?

7. What are the interactions and balance between the core physical oceanography program and large programs? How should they evolve in the future?

8. How do advances in PO benefit other parts of ocean sciences?

9. What pressing societal problems can PO contribute to?

10. What infrastructure (e.g., ships, instrumentation, computers, people) will be required to answer these questions?


By November 1997, there were about fifty replies posted on the APROPOS homepage2 and replies continued to arrive until February 1998. This meeting report synthesizes those replies together with the results of the group discussion at the retreat. Each of the four discussion groups was assigned focus questions from the list above and each group was asked to produce a synthetic essay in answer to its focus questions. All groups were asked to consider the two "big questions", questions 2 and 3 on the list above.


2 The address is http://www.joss.ucar.edu/joss_psg/project/oce_workshop/apropos/

Another component of the meeting was six thematic presentations and six responses addressed to the assembled participants. The goal of these talks, organized mainly in terms of scientific methodology, was to direct the attention of the participants to concrete scientific issues. The presentations were given by specialists, while the respondents were chosen as educated observers of the specialist's subject. The speakers and respondents were:


The talks and responses were followed by wide-ranging plenary discussion. After these plenary sessions, the discussion groups formed to consider the implications of the thematic talks for the ten questions posed above.


II. The past twenty years of physical oceanography

The last twenty years have seen great advances in our physical understanding of the oceans. Each of these advances is a small piece in a gigantic puzzle. In the last two decades we have found important new pieces, and strengthened our grip on many of the old. The field is just beginning to assemble these elements and uncover the great picture that is our ultimate scientific goal: a comprehensive understanding of the physics of the ocean. In this section we summarize some highpoints of physical oceanography since the 1970's.

Observing the general circulation of the ocean
There is now a compilation of global datasets of temperature, salinity, velocity and other water properties, including a global climatology based on all available data collected over several decades. During the last twenty years, physical oceanographers and geochemists found common ground and this alliance employed different chemical tracers (chlorofluorocarbons, helium/tritium) to understand the pathways and timescales of the ocean circulation. A globally organized survey of water properties, the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, was completed within a 7-year time frame. Thus, for the first time, there is a picture of the general circulation of the ocean which is based on data collected coherently and within a single decade.

Thermocline theory
A new theoretical understanding of the structure of the subtropical thermocline emerged when theoreticians broke free of the straitjacket of similarity solutions. In the upper ocean, the "ventilated thermocline" theory elucidated the mechanism by which subduction carries surface conditions into the deeper waters. In the thermocline layers, shielded from interaction with the atmosphere at subtropical latitudes, the "potential vorticity homogenization" theory explained how weak, persistent eddy motions shape the gyre-scale structure of the density field. Eddy resolving ocean circulation models made an essential contribution by showing that potential vorticity homogenization is a robust characteristic of the geostrophic turbulence on deep density layers.

Equatorial oceanography and El Niño
There has been a revolution in equatorial oceanography and its linkage with meteorology. Understanding the ocean-atmosphere coupling of the El Niño phenomenon, and the consequent predictability of short-term climate, is probably the most visible practical success of physical oceanography. This understanding has culminated in a combination of dynamical models with an unprecedented network of equatorial ocean observations. This combination is beginning to provide seasonal weather forecasts for the continental US and elsewhere. Such forecasts have enormous economic value to the nation.

Mesoscale variability
Physical oceanographers now have an estimate of the global distribution of mesoscale variability in the world ocean. Long-term open-ocean measurements revealed the existence of large fluctuations in open-ocean currents on timescales of weeks to months, and systematic global variations in the intensity of these fluctuations. These observational advances were in parallel with strides in our theoretical understanding of mesoscale dynamics, instability theory, wave-mean flow interaction, geostrophic turbulence and diffusion. And eddy resolving ocean circulation models gave physical oceanographers a remarkable picture of how all these ingredients interact.

Coastal oceanography
The theory and observation of coastal-trapped wave physics has developed so that physical oceanographers can use this machinery to explain the sea-level and alongshore current variability over continental shelves on time scales longer than a day. The theory explains how alongshore currents are generally regional in character and are efficiently driven by the winds. Because alongshore currents are much stronger than the cross-shelf flow, this coastal-trapped wave paradigm accounts for the largest part of the current variance over the shelf. Finally, the theory is physically appealing and leads to successful hindcasts of shelf currents by applying simple mathematics to observed inputs. This satisfying application of fluid mechanics has been a major step forward in the study of the coastal ocean.

Bottom Boundary Layer Physics
Substantial advances have been made in understanding and predicting the peculiar properties of turbulent and rapidly rotating boundary layers over a sloping bottom. Because of the bottom slopes, flow across depth contours implies a vertical density transport which can determine the character, or even existence, of transport in the boundary layer. Flow near the bottom is important because of its role in transporting materials (such as sediments and benthic biota) between shallow and deep water. These bottom flows also govern the behavior of stronger alongshore flows in the overlying water column. Thus, an appreciation of the linkage between the bottom boundary layer and the interior, is essential to an understanding of the dynamics of alongshore flows on the continental shelf.

Small-scale turbulent mixing in the ocean
Direct measurements of diapycnal mixing with tracer release experiments have unambiguously vindicated decades of microstructure measurements and theoretical inferences. The resulting synthesis of theory and observations, buttressed by laboratory experiments and numerical simulation, has provided quantitative estimates of the intensity of small-scale turbulent mixing in the main thermocline, and its dependence on the strength of the internal wave field. This quantification of one of the important water-mass conversion pathways in the ocean has been achieved by focusing on the smallest scales of motion. This advance has far-reaching implications for our understanding of global circulation patterns and all physical, biological, chemical, and geological processes that depend on the geographic distribution of mixing.

Instrumentation
Technology has expanded our ability to observe the ocean on a broad range of space and time scales. Long-term moorings, satellite remote sensing, microstructure probes, acoustic Doppler current meters, acoustic tomography, freely drifting floats and many other innovative instruments and techniques have given physical oceanographers new views of the ocean. The successful TOPEX-POSEIDON mission, which provided a data set that is at once global and synoptic. The implications of this advance remain undigested.


III. Future directions

Challenging as it may be to make progress on any scientific problem, it is even more difficult to predict the future course of scientific progress. One might say that every important discovery in science is, almost by definition, unpredictable and so it is futile to guess at future triumphs. Indeed, it is worse than futile if these guesses are used to"manage" the direction and content of science. It is our belief that basic research, independent of any practical concerns, is critical to the advance of science and the development of technology. Science is the most serendipitous of human enterprises and the ability of physical oceanography to solve problems of social concern depends on a healthy commitment of resources to basic research on fundamental scientific issues.

Climate
The economic benefits of understanding the role of the ocean in the climate system are enormous. And accumulating evidence of man-made climate change has brought these issues to the attention of the public. These concerns coincide with recent successes in long-term weather forecasting associated with El Niño, and with advances which enable detailed measurement of climate variables. (For instance, in the last ten years, the errors in surface heat fluxes obtained from moorings have been reduced by a factor of forty so that the present uncertainty is 5 Watts per square meter.) These factors imply that climate studies will be a significant path for future research in oceanography.

The development of long-term forecasting skill raises challenging scientific problems. These include: understanding and quantifying turbulent mixing, convection, water-mass formation and destruction; the thermohaline circulation and its coupling to the wind-driven circulation; the generation, maintenance, and destruction of climatic anomalies; climatic oscillations and the extratropical coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on seasonal, decadal and interdecadal timescales; the physics of exchange processes between the ocean and the atmosphere. All these problems are of fundamental scientific and practical importance.

Will there be substantial progress on these issues during the next decade? Many physical oceanographers have already begun an enthusiastic frontal assault under the banner of CLIVAR. It is likely that the economic issues which surround global change and climate prediction will motivate continued financial support from society. If people and money are what counts, then we have every reason to be optimistic.

The problem of global climate prediction is the most difficult that our field has encountered. Unlike equatorial oceanography and El Niño, there is not going to be a theory based on linear waveguide dynamics which decisively identifies timescales and cohesively binds oceanography and meteorology. Further, the decadal timescale of extratropical dynamics means that scientists see only a few realizations of the system within their own lifetime. This is bad for morale, but even worse, we cannot wait to gather enough data to reliably verify the different predictions of climate models. Could meteorologists have developed daily weather prediction models if these scientists saw only three or four independent realizations of the system in a lifetime? The only way around this statistical problem is to expand our data base and frame hypotheses about past climate change and ocean circulation using paleo-oceanographic studies. An important challenge is to test the dynamical consistency of these hypotheses.

The hydrologic cycle
An emerging theme, which is strongly related to climate, is the ocean's role in the hydrologic cycle. New satellite technologies promise to measure sea surface salinity and precipitation. These, coupled with improvements in the computation of evaporation via indirect methods, will improve our picture of the freshwater flux in the oceans. The freshwater sphere is an encompassing topic that spans oceanography, the atmospheric sciences, polar ice dynamics and hydrology. Our knowledge of the oceanic freshwater source-sink distribution is far poorer than our knowledge of the source-sink distribution of heat. Yet salinity and temperature contend in their joint effect on the density of seawater and in their influence on the ocean circulation, and the climate system. Knowledge of freshwater input from continents, precipitation, and sea-ice is poor. Observational techniques addressing these issues (for example, the use of oxygen isotopes, and tritium/helium to diagnose freshwater sources) herald progress.

Coupled with improved estimates of the freshwater sources at the surface, will be an increased understanding of water-mass dynamics and transformations. We can look for advancement on such fundamental issues as the causes of the temperature-salinity relationship, thermocline maintenance and interhemispheric water-mass exchanges.

Observing the ocean
We will see explosive development of new observational tools, such as those used by the TOPEX/POSEIDON satellite mission which measured the topography of the sea surface to 3 cm accuracy at 7 km spacing for 5 years. Future developments in satellite oceanography promise more of the same at ever-increasing accuracy, coupled with the deployment of new satellite-borne instruments. Yet sea-truth is essential and we envisage in situ observations which will be made by an unprecedented class of autonomous instruments and probes. The ability to manipulate these tools in mid-mission is developing. [While we are making enormous strides in sampling the global better we still have far to go for truly adequate spatial and temporal sampling, though] the era of grossly undersampling the global ocean is dead

A national effort to support sustained high-quality global observations over decades is needed. Measurements of air-sea fluxes of heat, fresh water, and gases, of surface and sub-surface temperature, salinity and velocity, are all necessary to meet new scientific challenges and practical needs. Looking beyond the equatorial TOGA-TAO array, long-term subsurface measurements spanning the global ocean are required.

Given the rapid increase in Lagrangian measurements by drifting and profiling floats, and the parallel increase in geochemical tracer data, an intense approach to Lagrangian analysis of advection and diffusion is warranted; our existing base of theoretical tools and concepts is not worthy of the observations which we are about to receive.

Global and regional connections
Many emerging physical oceanographic issues concern connections between large-scale and small-scale motions; for example, the relation between small-scale turbulent mixing and the large-scale meridional overturning circulation. Analogous connections and interactions between scales are arising in issues of societal concern, often centered around the increasing recognition that many issues previously regarded as regional now require a global perspective. Anthropogenic pollutants have reached the open ocean and are known to be transported far from their sources. A better understanding is needed of small-scale processes and small-scale aqueous systems (estuaries, wetlands, coral reefs) and their impacts on global issues. For example, the growth of plankton populations, which affect carbon dioxide levels and thus may be important in global warming scenarios, is dependent on details of circulation at fronts, sea-ice and mixed-layer boundaries.

Cross-shelf transports
In most coastal regions, the strongest persistent gradients in properties (for example, salinity, temperature, nutrients or suspended materials) are found in the cross-shelf direction. This is because cross-shelf flow is often inhibited by topography and because the coastal ocean is the contact zone between terrestrial influences, such as river runoffs, and oceanic influences characterized by nonlinear physical dynamics and oligotrophic biological conditions. Progress has certainly been made on some aspects of the flows that determine cross-shelf transports, especially those related to surface and bottom boundary layer processes. A good deal more has yet to be learned about exchanges that occur in the interior of the water column. The problem is difficult because it often appears that the processes which are relevant for the dominant alongshore flows do not apply to cross-shelf flows. For example, it is likely that instabilities and topographic influences may dominate the exchange process. The exchange itself needs to be understood if we are to address issues such as the control of biological productivity in the coastal ocean, or the removal of contaminants from the near-shore zone.

In addition to cross-shelf exchange processes themselves, there is the question of how the coastal ocean couples to its surroundings on both the landward and seaward sides. Estuarine processes are important for determining the quantity and quality of terrestrial materials that reach the open shelves. The oceanic setting, including eddies, filaments and boundary currents, in turn determines how effectively coastal influences can spread offshore, or how the oceanic reservoir will affect shelf conditions. Consequently, the study of the continental shelf demands consideration of both offshore and near-shore (estuarine and surf zone) dynamics.

Inland waters and environmental fluid dynamics
Our understanding of inland waters, such as estuaries, wetlands, tide flats, and lakes, will be aided the same observational and computational technologies which promise progress on the general circulation problem. This work will afford exciting opportunities for interdisciplinary research blending physical oceanography with biology, geochemistry and ecology. Examples are tidal flushing through the root system of a wetland, and the physical oceanography of coral reefs.

Lakes can be useful analogs of the ocean, with wind and thermally driven circulations, developing coastal fronts, and topographically steered currents. Lakes are important as model ecosystems which are simpler and more accessible than ocean ecosystems. Significant progress can be foreseen in the coming decades in limnology, helped by the tools and ideas developed for the ocean.

The expertise of the physical oceanography community should make possible substantial advances in the understanding of all these shallow systems. Because of the major roles played by turbulence and complex topography, these systems pose impressive and fascinating challenges to physical oceanography.

Turbulent mixing and unexplored scales
Past achievements in quantifying small-scale turbulent mixing in the main thermocline, coupled with exciting recent measurements in the deep ocean, suggest that a description and an understanding of the spatial distribution of turbulent mixing in the global ocean is achievable in the next decade. Unraveling the possible connections between the spatial and temporal distribution of mixing, the large-scale meridional overturning circulation, and climate variability are important aspects of this research.

Knowledge of the horizontal structure of the ocean on scales between the mesoscale (roughly 50 km) and the microscale (roughly less than 10 m) will be radically advanced and altered. The growing use of towed and autonomous vehicles, in combination with acoustic Doppler current profilers, will revolutionize our view of the ocean by exploring and mapping these almost unvisited scales throughout the global ocean. While this research is driven by interdisciplinary forces (biological processes and variability are active on these relatively small horizontal scales) it is also a new frontier for physical oceanography, and one in which even present technology enables ocean observers to obtain impressive data sets.

Numerical modeling as an integrative tool
Large-scale numerical models of the ocean, and of coupled ocean-atmosphere, are becoming the centerpiece of our science. This is not to say that numerical models dominate our science, but rather that results of theory and observational data are often cast into the form of numerical models. This happens either through data-assimilation or through process-model explorations of theoretical ideas. Yet the fundamental difficulty of computer modeling remains: the ocean has, in its balanced circulation, energy-containing eddies of such small scale (less than 100 km) that explicit resolution of these dominant elements is marginally possible. Compounding this difficulty are the unbalanced, three dimensional turbulent motions which are known to be important in select areas, such as the sites of open ocean convection.

We now have a well-acknowledged list of subregions of general circulation models that are greatly in need of improvement. These include: deep convection; boundary currents and benthic boundary layers; the representation of the dynamics and thermohaline variability of the upper mixed layer; fluxes across the air-sea interface; diapycnal mixing; topographic effects. Progress in all of these areas is likely as our capacity for modeling smaller scale features increases, and as physically -based parameterizations are developed.


Surprising discoveries


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IV. Intradiscipline interactions3

NSF should support activities promoting interactions among theorists, modelers and observers. Good communication within physical oceanography is important for nurturing and exchanging new ideas, and it also provides collaborative opportunities for testing new ideas by combining observations and theory. The Internet has made a great difference in the way we communicate, and full motion video will enable close collaborations to develop at a distance. Yet, personal interactions will remain crucial. There will continue to be a need for workshops which bring oceanographers from different institutions and areas of expertise together for extended periods. It is also important that there be the opportunity for investigators to make extended visits to institutions other than their own, and meet others with similar interests, but different approaches.


3 This was the focus issue for group consisting of Bower, Boyd, Chassignet, Doney, Eriksen, Hara, Johnson, Moum, Muenchow, Price, and Rizzoli.

The responses of the physical oceanography community to the question: "Are the interactions among the elements of PO (analytic, experimental, numerical and observational) adequate?" indicate a mild level of discontent with the present level of interaction between modelers and observers. The barriers to communication are much lower than they were ten years ago, and the WOCE program deserves some of credit for this improvement (especially in the field of data assimilation).

The community response also indicates a lack of interaction between "process-study" modelers (those undertaking focused computations intended to expose a deliberately limited amount of physics) and "comprehensive" modelers (all-inclusive computations intended to realistically simulate a complex system). In particular, there seems to be a regrettable intellectual prejudice against the latter. Physical oceanography is maturing to the stage where it is beginning to recognize that large simulations, like observations, provide a test bed for process studies and theories.


V. Interfaces with other disciplines4

As oceanography progresses, it becomes increasingly advantageous, indeed necessary, to formulate new research initiatives using an interdisciplinary framework. There are many examples: one can no longer study the food chain without understanding circulation and mixing processes; in certain conditions phytoplankton play a significant role in the upper ocean heat balance; the ocean bottom not only steers currents, there is growing evidence that currents may also shape the bottom on geological time scales; paleoclimatology draws much insight from biology, chemistry and physics. In short, we can anticipate and should facilitate closer ties and collaboration across the entire science of oceanography. There is true synergy to be found here.


4 This is the focus issue for the group consisting of Barth, Brink, MacCready, Maxworthy, McWilliams, Meacham, Roemmich, Schlosser, Thompson, and Toole.

Not all interactions between disciplines are interdisciplinary research. The latter is characterized by a two-way flow of information between the sciences involved. This exchange may be simpler and more apparent when the sciences share a common physical basis, such as the collaboration between physical oceanography and meteorology in the study of air-sea fluxes. Alternatively, interactions may take the form of shared ideas and knowledge in an attack on a common problem, such as the physics and biology of coastal upwelling systems. Studies that involve a one-way flow of information, such as the importation of inverse theory from geophysics into physical oceanography, are of great value, but are not interdisciplinary research. Three elements are identified as keys to successful interdisciplinary research projects:

There was agreement at the APROPOS meeting that if physical oceanography is reduced to the service role of making routine measurements of environmental variables then the project is not interdisciplinary, though it may be excellent science. Despite this unanimity, there was significant disagreement over how strictly (ii) should be interpreted: some projects acquire strength by addressing issues which fall between traditional divisions. In these cases imaginative physical oceanographers will see opportunities even though the immediate physical content of the project may not be at the forefront of our science.

An increase in interdisciplinary research poses challenges for the research, educational and funding institutions. Physical oceanographic departments have an opportunity to participate in and guide the development of interdisciplinary projects. A structural obstacle to this involvement is the tendency of some departments to undervalue contributions to interdisciplinary research in promotion decisions. If physical oceanography departments fail to appreciate people who cross traditional boundaries then exciting scientific opportunities will be lost.

As we train new graduate students in physical oceanography, we should prepare them for an interdisciplinary research environment by including more than a cursory exposure to ocean research activities outside physical oceanography. However, this must not be at the expense of a solid grounding in the physical and mathematical fundamentals of physical oceanography. An increasing number of departments is already moving towards interdisciplinary research and including significant meteorological, chemical, biological or geophysical components in their students' education. As in the case of research, if physical oceanography curricula cannot accommodate interdisciplinary education then many students may opt for explicitly interdisciplinary curricula.

The funding of proposals that cross the disciplinary boundaries on which the NSF is organized poses a challenge to the NSF. The existing system has produced good examples of interdisciplinary research in the last 20 years. These include impressive progress in the understanding of El Niño, and the use of geochemical tracers to illuminate ocean dynamics. However, the current practice of having interdisciplinary proposals go through the review process of two or more panels and be assigned funding from two or more separate disciplinary pools of money continues to produce difficulties. There is not a consensus on how to solve this problem.


VI. Interfaces with society5

The world ocean has a major impact on a host of societal issues. The 1992 National Research Council report on "Oceanography in the Next Decade" begins its executive summary with an unequivocal acknowledgment of this fact:


5 This is the focus issue for the group consisting of Friedrichs, Gordon, Huang, Kawase, Lozier, Luther, Maslowski, Monismith, Rudnick, Samelson, and Tandon.

"The ocean dominates Earth's surface and greatly affects daily life. It regulates Earth's climate, plays a critical role in the hydrological cycle, sustains a large portion of Earth's biodiversity, supplies food and mineral resources, constitutes an important medium of national defense, provides an inexpensive means of transportation, is the final destination of many waste products, is a major location of human recreation, and inspires our aesthetic nature."

Every problem or issue that requires knowledge of water motion, or the transport of materials or physical properties by water motion, relies on physical oceanography. Such problems include: pollutant dispersal and remediation, transport of anthropogenic and natural materials, climate change, air-sea rescue, wave and surge prediction and the prediction and nowcasting of currents and water levels in coastal areas, bays, and harbors, fishery management, and eventually all enterprises which require knowledge of sea surface temperature, including coastal habitability, species abundance, global warming, sea level rise, and the prediction of hurricane tracks and intensities. Every human activity in the ocean, and many human activities in the adjacent coastal zone and far inland (as the effect of El Nino weather anomalies on agricultural productivity has dramatically demonstrated), is affected by physical oceanographic phenomena.

In the following sections, we enumerate some of the main areas in which physical oceanography has an impact on issues of social concern, and then outline emerging scientific challenges in some of these areas. But first, four general points deserve emphasis:

We now turn to some specific connections between social concerns and physical oceanography.

Climate Forecasting
Climate forecasting has great economic value for agriculture, transportation, insurance and other enterprises. The potential economic impact of long-term sea level change is enormous. International attempts to ameliorate anthropogenic climate change, such as global warming from greenhouse gases, depend on climate forecasts. Climate change will have important regional impacts on the coastal ocean, estuaries, as well as on the operation of large-scale water resources systems upon which society depends. Understanding local ecosystem responses to both natural climate changes and anthropogenic activity (coastal engineering, pollution) is an outstanding problem. Effects of climate change have been felt in sharp declines in the productivity of the anchovy industry of Peru, fisheries in the Gulf of Alaska, and elsewhere. Forecasts of climate change make possible informed planning decisions. A current example is the response of local agencies along the west coast to prediction of heavy precipitation associated with this year's El Ni-o. The accuracy of the forecasts and the effectiveness of the agenciesÕ preparations are yet to be assessed, but it is clear that the public considers the forecast, based in large part on oceanographic knowledge obtained over the past 15 years, to have value.

Economic competitiveness & resource development
The efficiency and safety of commercial and recreational operations at sea, including the exploitation of offshore mineral and energy resources, maritime transportation, mariculture and aquaculture, recreational boating and fishing, and commercial fishing, depend on knowledge of ambient sea conditions and on predictions of future conditions.

Environmental quality and coastal hazards
Physical oceanographic processes play a fundamental role in many issues related to environmental quality. These include: disposal of sewage, garbage, and radioactive waste; pollutant transport, dispersal, and remediation; sediment transport and coastal erosion; oil spills. Physical knowledge contributes to the amelioration of biological problems such as algal blooms, exotic species invasions, hypoxia and nutrient loading. Physical assessment of environmental variables is essential for management of fisheries, harbors, wetlands and the engineering of coastal structures. Physical oceanographic knowledge helps to understand extreme and life-threatening events, such as: storm surges; high surf; and tsunamis.

National defense
The efficacy of military operations at sea depends on the knowledge and prediction of environmental conditions in the ocean, at the land-ocean margin, and in the overlying atmosphere. Understanding the dependence of acoustic and electromagnetic transmissions on ocean variability is crucial for the Navy. Accurate wave predictions simplify beach landings. Acoustic remote sensing will continue to be a central aspect of naval strategy and tactics.


VII. The NSF's Physical Oceanography Core program6

The National Science Foundation's Core program, in philosophy and practice, is an invaluable asset to physical oceanography. The history of physical oceanography is replete with examples of essential concepts and ideas created by the lone investigator, supported by the Core program. In addition, large science, as embodied in programs such as WOCE, GLOBEC and CoOP, has often looked to and incorporated scientific principles whose genesis can be traced to Core research. The essential qualities of Core research are flexibility, innovation, responsiveness and diversity of investigator-driven research. The Core program has shown a remarkable capacity for recognizing and nurturing emerging trends. Often, these are ideas whose emergence is impossible to predict. The administration of Core research by dedicated and effective program managers, who oversee the peer review system, is responsible for maintaining a balance between scientific rigor and responsiveness. This system provides support for conservative and fundamental science, as well as fostering exciting new ideas. This flexibility must not be lost for Core to continue as a nursery of innovative physical oceanography. This role is increasingly important in order to mitigate the political and societal pressures that direct science toward applied and "relevant" research.


6 This is the focus issue for the group consisting of Chang, Dewar, Geyer, Leaman, Melville, Qiu, Ralph, Ledwell, Rhines, Rossby, Strub, and Van Scoy.

The NSF Core program plays an essential role in nurturing young scientists. The program provides a unique opportunity for a young scientist to win support for a fledgling research program, often in a completely novel direction, by appeal to established scientists with a well-conceived and executed proposal. This is a strenuous undertaking, and is unlikely to succeed without the support of a well-respected mentor, and a promising record as a graduate student and perhaps as a postdoctoral fellow. This is as it should be in a world that cannot divine the promise of an individual in a vacuum. Still, Core provides one of the best paths for young scientists to become independent investigators in physical oceanography.

The nature of Core-related work necessarily involves an unpredictable side, reminiscent of the character of nonlinear dynamical systems. The flexibility of the Core program must be preserved, in order to provide opportunities for bold and unexpected advances in our science.

There are benefits of the proposal review process that go beyond the necessary function of competitive evaluation and selection. The scientific ideas and approaches must be more clearly defined than in any other funding environment, leading to research programs of the highest quality. The thoughtful and rigorous review process can help reshape a rejected proposal into a successful future research endeavor. Moreover, the experiences of reviewing proposals and serving on panels broadens the awareness of researchers about other efforts in the field and about the funding process itself. Although these aspects of the peer review process are taxing to the community, they provide invaluable insights into the emerging ideas and priorities of other members of the research community. Serving on a panel also tends to reinstill one's faith in the effectiveness of the peer-review process, and serving on an NSF panel is an excellent experience for young scientists.


Problems with Core Research
A major problem is the increasing time and effort expended in writing and refereeing proposals. The most important factor contributing to this trend is the increasing number of proposal submissions, resulting from both a decrease in ONR-supported research and an increase in the number of physical oceanographers. As the number of submitted proposals increases and the available funds remains relatively constant, the number of rejected and resubmitted proposals increases. Not only is it taxing and inefficient to spend so much time on proposals, but it often takes two years or more to commence a research project after the inception of the idea. Investigators should take advantage of the NSFÕs policy of encouraging 4 and 5 year proposals.

The organization of ocean sciences at the NSF makes it difficult to fund projects of intermediate size. (Roughly speaking, these are projects with an annual budget of about $1 million to $2 million.) The logistical hurdles involved with the design and implementation of such a project are formidable. Because of this effort, the cost of failure in the proposal review process is significant. Yet the high cost of such proposals makes them difficult to support within core research. In many cases these intermediate-sized projects are interdisciplinary, so they require the involvement of more than one NSF program. The NSF should continue to be aware of these problems, and should establish guidelines for the initiation of both intermediate size projects and interdisciplinary programs. With these guidelines, and knowledge of budgetary constraints, program managers should be able to advise scientists about the prospects for funding of a project. If an idea seems viable, then the NSF should be able to advise on the submission and review process and, in the case of interdisciplinary proposals, establish a special review process.

Interdisciplinary programs are a particular problem in that their strength is often in the issues that lie between two disciplines, rather than in innovative science in each individual discipline. Being subject to the same standards within each discipline as single-discipline proposals will result in the rejection of interdisciplinary proposals. This problem will be ameliorated as more oceanographers become involved with interdisciplinary research but, at this time, special efforts need to be made to evaluate interdisciplinary proposals.

The Relationship of Core to Large Programs
In physical oceanography there are essential observational tasks which cannot be undertaken by an individual investigator, or even a small cooperative of investigators; we require the organization, single-minded direction and purposeful execution of a "large program". Perhaps our best example is WOCE, a program which provided a global view of the physical state of the ocean.

Large groups dedicated to the application of cutting-edge computational methods to the prediction of climate may emerge, as has occurred in meteorology. As concerns about the ecological health of our planet grow, we are pressed ever more for answers to global questions; large programs will provide the focus that is necessary to address these matters.

Most large programs have roots in Core, including one of the most prominent successes in physical oceanography - the TOGA program and the associated advances in our understanding of El Niño and its influence on global climate. Core-supported research in equatorial dynamics provided the groundwork for this large-scale research effort, without which the critical importance of the equatorial atmosphere-ocean coupling would not have been recognized. An equally successful interaction is the study of the coastal upwelling systems of eastern boundary currents. Core funding supported the development of ideas and techniques, later used in the larger programs, and also spawned related spin-offs such as new observations and continued analysis. The larger programs incorporated results from Core projects into a coordinated and interdisciplinary examination of coastal upwelling on a scale not possible within Core. Additional examples include the Subduction experiment and the recent Tracer Release experiments, whose founding ideas and principles germinated in Core sponsored research but whose execution required the support of a large NSF or ONR program. Core also provided support for ideas generated during, but not included in, the large programs. Indeed, so many scientists receive support from a shifting mixture of Core and large programs that it is impossible to assign credit for particular achievements. Finally, the international collaborations initiated by large programs have contributed to the development of oceanographic capabilities in other countries and these collaborations are essential to the success of research projects with global scope.


VIII. The infrastructure of physical oceanography

Based on the present challenges and future demands of research in physical oceanography, we make several recommendations about the infrastructure of our science.

Ships
The present fleet effectively serves most of the needs of physical oceanographic research. However, the composition of this fleet changes as ships are retired and new ships are brought into service. The recent addition of the AGOR 23 class vessels (Thompson, Revelle, and Atlantis) greatly increases the global and interdisciplinary capabilities of the U.S. academic fleet. Interdisciplinary research activities in coastal regions are expected to increase in the next decades. Some of these activities will demand the scientific capacity of these new large ships, though at the same time will require the shallower drafts of the present generation of intermediate class vessels. Because the length of service of research vessels is about 30 years, in the next decade, 6 of the 8 intermediate class vessels should be retired along with 2 large vessels. At least 5 and sometimes more than 15 years has been required to design, fund and build a research vessel, so we should be starting to think about replacements now. High capacity, shallow draft coastal vessels are needed most urgently.

In the future, increased use of autonomous underwater vehicles and remote operating vehicles will change ship requirements but these technologies will not likely significantly reduce our reliance on ships. Ships of opportunity and volunteer observing ships are likely to be used more frequently as we attempt to obtain long term data sets from the global ocean. A need will exist for the implementation and coordination of this sampling with other programs such as satellite measurements, moorings, floats, drifters and long time series at fixed locations. Sensor packages of varying complexity must be developed, tested, refined and manufactured and partnerships must be forged with the merchant fleet. Long term support has to be garnered for the implementation of a major global ocean sampling program using a mixture of sea-going and remote sensing platforms.

Computing Resources
Significant enhancement of national computing resources is required in order to meet even the current demands for climate modeling. For example, the current Climate System Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research uses most of its allocation to do a 100-year coupled integration. There is an immediate need for longer runs, parameter studies and climate-change experiments, amounting to roughly 60 of the above runs. This requires the entire computational capacity of the 5-Gigaflop Cray C-90 of the Climate Simulation Laboratory for the next three years. The computational demands of data inverse and adjoint modelling are potentially even greater than those of the "forward" climate models discussed above. Thus, even though the power of computers is doubling every few years, the complexity of the oceans ensures that the ambitions of some physical oceanographers will always be limited by computational resources. Physical oceanographers need continued access to computing resources which are comparable to those of the international atmospheric and engineering sciences.

Instrumentation
The success of new techniques and instrumentation in revealing aspects of the ocean circulation has been spectacular over the past 30 years. Much of this instrumentation was developed as part of large NSF programs, notably MODE. It is important that a place be maintained in NSF Ocean Sciences for the development of new instrumentation. At present, this support for instrumentation resides in the Ocean Technology and Interdisciplinary Coordination (OTIC) program which operates in alliance with the Physical Oceanography program. We endorse this program and encourage its expansion in close concert with that of the physical oceanography program.

People
It is important that we maintain the trained and experienced support personnel required in the field, in the laboratory and at the computer screen. The way to insure this is to provide a measure of stability in the overall funding for each general kind of research (not necessarily for particular PIs, nor even for particular institutions). NSF must give some attention to this. It is impossible for the individual investigator to see the overall picture, or to do anything about it. NSF could track the level of effort in each area and try to anticipate changes. Just the distribution of information on this subject might help PIs and the other agencies anticipate boom and bust cycles.

Large sea-going groups have been dealing with retrenchment for several years; some APROPOS participants and respondents used terms such as "death" and "crisis" to describe the current state. This situation is a result of the contraction of the ONR, which formerly provided stable funding to support the skilled technicians who are essential in sea-going enterprises. Once physical oceanography loses these people, a large investment in hardware is gone with them. Managing this contraction, so that physical oceanography maintains critical nuclei of sea-going expertise, is a major problem.

Long-term Observations
Long time series observations (LTSO) provide essential data on oceanographic processes, particularly those related to climate change. In the past, time series have often depended on heroic individuals for their success and continuity, with NSF playing an important role as a funding source. However, with rising interest in climate prediction and decadal variability, the time is right to institutionalize oceanographic LTSO. The responsibility for long-term funding of a time series cannot reside in the NSF Core, and neither is a large program, with a limited duration, a suitable vehicle. This type of research requires an organization with a long time horizon and a commitment to long-term climatic assessment. The obvious agency is NOAA, which should be congratulated on its successes in recent years in making LTSO, and should be encouraged and helped to expand the existing base of LTSOs. The NSF Core, nevertheless, should continue to support the design and development of LTSO through modeling, theoretical work, process studies, and time series observations of limited duration, where appropriate.

Education
It is vital to maintain a flux of scientists through our field. At the entrance of this pipe there is a problem which confronts teaching institutions: there is a shortage of suitably prepared applicants to graduate programs in physical oceanography. Recruiting high quality people into our field is essential. To see the consequences of ignoring this obvious point we recall Wolfgang Pauli's assessment of a young colleague of his: "So young, and already so unknown."

The ideal applicant to a graduate physical oceanography program is a mathematics, physics or engineering major. Yet physical oceanography has little visibility to the undergraduates in those majors. The NSF might consider developing a program which will increase the awareness of physical oceanography as a career option for technically trained undergraduates.

There must be sufficient scientists to meet the demands and sufficient funds to maintain the health of the science. The times are changing. The explosive growth of science since the creation of the NSF, and since the technology race of the cold war, is now over. Determining the future demands for personnel in our field is nearly impossible, but anticipation of modest growth is reasonable. The time required to produce a graduate means that one must expect demand for that student five or more years in it the future. We remain optimistic that opportunities for our students will be there, but we do not envision expansion at double digit rates.

Several APROPOS participants commented that physical oceanography graduate students are very aware of the severe difficulties facing sea-going groups (see People above). Students are responding by avoiding thesis work with a large sea-going component. The long-term consequences of this trend will be to take physical oceanography away from its roots in field observations.

We need to have an understanding of past and present rates of Ph.D. production in ocean sciences. The NSF should monitor the number of Ph.D. students being produced in each subdiscipline of physical oceanography. The NSF has great power to control that production by its response to requests for student and post-doctoral support in proposals, and by the management of fellowship programs. Progress in physical oceanography is still dependent to a large extent on innovative ways of observing the ocean. Today, with the high cost and logistical effort associated with sea going programs, more students busy themselves in front of computer screens. We must assure that a steady supply of experimenters and engineers continues along with modelers and theoreticians. A delicate balance must be maintained.

Environmental problems will increase in the next decades and increased public concern will continue to provide opportunities with the greening of undergraduate education. Science, including physical oceanography, will become a key player in an arena where economics, law, engineering, and medicine are all active. Our future graduates should have increased opportunities for interdisciplinary studies both inside of and outside of the academic science community. If the world is survival-oriented, then resources will become available for this work. However, great conflict exists regarding the education of these future scientists. We are torn between assuring that our students know a lot about very little or very little about a lot. No solution is offered here. We encourage the NSF to consider the overlapping activities of general science education, undergraduate education and graduate education with ocean research and environmental applications.


IX. Conclusions

Since the Challenger expedition, physical oceanographers are used to probing the ocean while hampered by vast undersampling in both space and time. In the last twenty years our science has emerged from this groping infancy and physical oceanographers are starting to appreciate the implications of adequately sampling the global ocean. This new era of observational oceanography, coupled with theory and modeling of ocean processes, raises new challenges and promises new applications. Physical oceanography is an exciting science that provides intellectual stimulation with practical applications. To grow and flourish in the next decades, we must have a proper mixture of people, facilities, money and ideas. While the first and last are most important, progress cannot be made without the other two. The balance of these ingredients is constantly changing and the science community needs to help mold and to adapt to these changes. Charting the future of any science is impossible, just as it was futile for monastic scholars to draw maps of unexplored regions. For true exploration we ready our ship with the best knowledge, equipment and colleagues, hoping that we will be able to test our hunches, but yet find undiscovered wonders.



References

CoOP: Coastal Ocean Processes: A Science Prospectus. Brink, K., J. Bane., T. Church, C. Fairall, G. Geernaert, D. Hammond, S. Henrichs, C. Martens, C. Nittrouer, D. Rogers, M. Roman, J. Roughgarden, R. Smith, L. Wright, J. Yoder. Woods Hole Oceanog. Inst. Tech. Rept., WHOI-92-18, 103 pp., 1992.

NRC: Oceanography in the Next Decade. National Research Council, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources, Ocean Studies Board. National Academy Press, 202 pp., 1992.



APPENDIX

J. Barth^, OSU A. Bower, WHOI J. Boyd, UMich
K. Brink, WHOI P. Chang, TAMU E. Chassignet^, RSMAS
W. Dewar, FSU S. Doney, NCAR C. Eriksen, UW
C. Freidrichs, VIMS R. Geyer, WHOI A. Gordon, LDEO
R.X. Huang, WHOI T. Hara, URI M. Johnson, UAlaska
M. Kawase, UW K. Leaman, RSMAS J. Ledwell^, WHOI
S. Lozier^, Duke D. Luther, UH W. Maslowski, NPS
T. Maxworthy, USC P. McCready, UW J. McWiliams, UCLA
S. Meacham, MIT K. Melville, SIO S. Monismith^, Stanford
J. Moum, OSU A. Muenchow, Rutgers J. Price, WHOI
E. Ralph, UMinn P. Rhines^, UW P. Rizzoli, MIT
B. Qiu, UH D. Roemmich, SIO T. Rossby, URI
T. Royer^, ODU D. Rudnick, SIO R. Samelson, OSU
P. Schlosser^, LDEO T. Straub, OSU A. Tandon, UCSC
L. Thompson, UW J. Toole, WHOI K. van Scoy, UWisconsin
W. Young^, SIO


^ = steering committee member


For further information on the APROPOS Workshop, please contact Cathy Clark of UCAR-JOSS at apropos@joss.ucar.edu.

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